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By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report

September 8, 2008 — Obama and McCain in Dixie

The two campaigns have settled on the battleground states in the South. Barack Obama has canceled further TV spots in Georgia, but is buying more time in -- and sending more money to -- Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. And the Republican National Committee recently bought time in 14 states across the country, including -- you guessed it -- Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. According to the Real Clear Politics averages of recent polls in these states, in Florida, it’s John McCain 46%, Obama 43%; in North Carolina, McCain 47%, Obama 43%; and in Virginia, it’s even-steven -- 46% each.

McCain, Palin Win Viewer Wars

Nielsen and others who report on television viewing habits found that some 38.9 million people watched McCain’s acceptance speech, some half a million more than the 38.4 million who watched Obama accept the Democratic nomination. And Sarah Palin wasn’t far behind, with some 37.2 million, swamping Joe Biden’s 24 million. Palin is expected to have broad appeal in the South.

Palin’s Appeal

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Jim Wooten, in his September 5 column, wrote of Sarah Palin, “She is one of us. Her family is the one where the rain falls and the faucet drips and, no matter what, the family deals with it. These families go to work every day, send their sons and daughters off to fight the country’s wars, nurse their children through crisis, and walk proudly together to face the troubles that come their way.” The Washington Post reported that Joe Biden spoke to an audience of 150 in Northern Virginia last week. Look for much larger crowds for Palin, in Virginia and elsewhere in Dixie. The only cloud on Palin’s horizon is whether she can withstand the scrutiny of the national media, especially when she eventually has to meet them face-to-face. Stay tuned.

GOP Getting Post-Convention Gains

Early post-convention surveys show the McCain-Palin ticket got a significant boost from the Republicans’ Minneapolis-St. Paul convention, shortened though it was. In Gallup’s first poll published after McCain chose Palin, Obama’s lead dropped from nine points to four -- 48% to 44%. And that was before Palin and McCain spoke. Rasmussen, at about the same time, showed a 48% to 46% lead for Obama, again down from a higher Obama lead. And the latest Real Clear Politics average of recent national polls shows Obama with 46.6%, McCain 44.2%, again a shrinking Obama margin. In sum, McCain-Palin got a boost, but Obama-Biden still lead, albeit narrowly.

South Carolina: Graham’s Role

US Sen. Lindsay Graham’s (R) convention speech was not soaring oratory, but he did get in some sharp zingers. Noting that the surge of additional US troops in Iraq -- backed early by McCain -- had worked, Graham added, “The only people to deny it are Barack Obama and his buddies at MoveOn.Org.” Graham’s place on the convention’s last night line-up underscored his strong bond with McCain, whom Graham supported for president in both 2000 and 2008. If McCain is elected, Graham -- who is considered McCain’s best friend in the upper chamber -- is likely to be the President’s chief liaison with the Senate. Don’t be surprised if the already effective Graham becomes the Palmetto State’s most influential senator since, oh, maybe John C. Calhoun. (We Southerners know our history.)

North Carolina: Dole in a Fight

Polls continue to show a close race between US Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and state Sen. Kay Hagan (D). It’s Hagan 42%, Dole 39%, said a Public Policy Polling survey taken last week.  It’s Hagan 50%, Dole 45%, says a Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) survey taken August 20-26. And Hagan 40%, Dole 40%, according to an InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey taken August 19. Maybe Dole should have attended the Republican National Convention; she could probably have used a good photo-op with Sarah Palin.

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