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Mississippi: Wicker vs. Musgrove

By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report

September 10, 2008 — There is a hotly contested US Senate race in the Magnolia State this year between US Sen. Roger Wicker (R) and former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D). Wicker was appointed by Gov. Haley Barbour (R) last year to fill two years of the term of US Sen. Trent Lott (R), who retired. The Wicker-Musgrove contest is a special election to fill the remaining four years of the term.

Wicker, who represented the 1^st District (Tupelo, etc.) in Northeast Mississippi for 12 years, has never run statewide before. Moreover, when he resigned his congressional seat to enter the Senate, his old district elected a Democrat, Travis Childers, to succeed him. Childers is favored to win re-election to a full two-year term in November. “The Democrats have to win the 1^st District to win statewide,” says Hayes Dent, a Yazoo City businessman and former congressional candidate (R); he adds that though Childers is likely to win, Wicker is also strong in the district, even among local Democratic officeholders.

Wicker, however, has some significant pluses. Immediately after his appointment in December 2007, he began criss-crossing the state, concentrating on the coastal region where he is less known. Just last week, he appeared with Barbour when he held a news briefing on Hurricane Gustav.

Some observers believe that Musgrove’s support for a new state flag -- minus the Confederate battle flag -- which lost two-to-one in a statewide referendum in 2001, may be a plus for Wicker.

In addition, Wicker has raised plenty of money -- at mid-year, he had $2,951,000 cash-on-hand to Musgrove’s $716,000 -- and has used it on what veteran journalist Bill Minor calls “a raft of TV.” The US Chamber of Commerce also began running TV spots last week attacking Musgrove.

And the nomination of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate has given the GOP a major enthusiasm boost in the state. “Palin’s going over big in Mississippi,” says Pete Perry, a Jackson Republican activist.

Musgrove also has some significant advantages. He has run statewide three times, winning two of those elections. He served as governor of the state from 2000 to 2004, losing to Haley Barbour (R) in 2003. He has also been effective hitting Wicker on some hot-button issues, such as job losses he attributes to the NAFTA and CAFTA trade agreements (Mississippi’s unemployment rate of 8.5% is among the nation’s highest). He has also hit Wicker on illegal immigration. And while he had not been successful in the fundraising department as of June 30, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has run TV spots boosting him.

Finally, the impact of Barack Obama’s candidacy on both voter registration and turnout has been substantial, witness Childers’ win in the 1^st District special election. This could give Musgrove a major boost, although it could also increase racial polarization, which would help Musgrove.

Ironically, Wicker and Musgrove are old friends, at one point living as room-mates in Jackson while they were both serving in the state senate.

The latest Rasmussen poll gave Wicker a lead of 52% to 43%.