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Dixie’s GOP Challengers Have Opportunities

By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report

July 23, 2008 — The Republicans have -- or had -- some nine opportunities to pick up additional congressional seats in the South by defeating Democratic incumbents. The 2^nd Quarter Federal Election Commission (FEC) financial reports show four of these challengers are reasonably well financed. In the other five, the money isn’t there yet. However, although the political environment this year does not so far favor the GOP, the South is decidedly more conservative than the rest of the nation and the possibility of Republican victories in the midst of an overall Democratic gain cannot be discounted. Details:

Florida 16 (West Palm Beach, etc.)

Freshman Tim Mahoney (D) was elected in 2006 in a normally Republican district (Bush 54% in 2004) primarily because the incumbent, Mark Foley (R), had to resign after a sexual scandal. Although the GOP nominated a new candidate, the disgraced Foley’s name remained on the ballot and Mahoney won by an unimpressive 50% to 48%. This year, three Republicans are raising substantial sums vying for the Republican nomination to oppose Mahoney. Palm Beach Gardens Councilman Hal Valeche has $829,000 on hand; ex-law professor and Pittsburgh Steelers heir Tom Rooney has $451,000, and state Rep. Gayle Harrell has $240,000. Mahoney, meanwhile, hasn’t been sitting on his hands; he has $1,172,000. But the GOP sums combined exceed Mahoney’s, indicating the Republicans are eager to win back the seat.

Georgia 8 (Macon, etc.)

Third-term Jim Marshall (D) is a perpetual target for Republicans, inasmuch as his district otherwise leans to the GOP (Bush 58%). Marshall knows this, however, and is well-prepared, with $1,372,000 on hand. Nevertheless, the moderate Democrat, who won by a slim 51% in 2006, is likely to have a fight on his hands: Retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard has $489,000 on hand, not as much as Marshall, but enough to make a fuss.

Georgia 12 (Augusta to Savannah)

Second-term John Barrow (D) recently won an easy primary victory, complete with a TV spot on his behalf featuring Barack Obama. Though Barrow scraped by in 2006 -- an 864-vote margin -- in the money chase he has $1,109,000 on hand to $8,000 for former congressional aide John Stone. Moreover, 41% or more of the registered voters are African Americans, who are expected to vote at a higher rate this year.

Kentucky 3 (Louisville)

The polls show freshman John Yarmuth (D) leading; moreover, he’s likely to get a turn-out boost from Obama’s candidacy -- the district is 19% African American. Thus, most prognosticators don’t give his challenger, former US Rep. Anne Northup (R), much chance of reclaiming her old seat, which she lost to Yarmuth by 48% to 51% in 2006. But you have to give Northup credit. Despite her loss in 2006 and another in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2007, she still knows how to raise money. Yarmuth -- who is personally wealthy -- has $1,002,000 on hand, but Northup isn’t too far behind, with $819,000. Watch this one.

Louisiana 6 (Baton Rouge, etc.)

Freshman Don Cazayoux (D) won his seat in a special election in May by 49% to 46%. He had looked like a good bet for re-election, but two things have hurt him. First, the GOP united behind a new candidate, state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and second, African-American state Sen. Michael Jackson (D) filed to run as independent in the General Election. Cazayoux, fresh off his primary and runoff campaigns, has $38,000 on hand. Cassidy, fresh to the race, has $195,000. This is a prime pick-up prospect for the GOP.

Mississippi 1 (Tupelo, etc.)

Freshman Travis Childers (D) shook up politicos nationwide when he won the special election in May for the congressional seat held for 14 years by now-US Sen. Roger Wicker (R). Childers has $161,000 on hand. Greg Davis (R), former Southaven mayor, who lost to Childers 46% to 54%, has $54,000. Davis has a new campaign manager and is expected to forge ahead in August, after the Neshoba County Fair, the traditional start-up event for Magnolia State campaigns.

North Carolina 11 (Asheville, etc.)

Freshman Heath Shuler (D) was considered a prime target for the GOP, especially given the weakness Obama showed in mountainous areas in the primaries. But maverick Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower (R) won the Republican nomination and has suspended his campaign in a dispute with county GOP committees over political correctness, conservative style. The district now looks safe for Shuler, who has $965,000 on hand to Mumpower’s $1,000, a ration of 965 to 1.

Texas 22 (Sugarland, etc.)

Former US Rep. Nick Lampson (D), now a freshman in this new district, won this seat by a slim 52% in 2006 over a Republican write-in candidate, since a court ruling kept the GOP slot blank following former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s resignation. Former US Senate staffer Pete Olson won the GOP nod in the runoff with ease. Lampson has $1,148,000 on hand; Olson has $261,000. The district’s demographics favor Olson, but he doesn’t have the cash yet to take advantage of his opportunity.

Texas 23 (San Antonio, etc.)