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Grits
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
March 14, 2008 —
Trends in the Mississippi Returns The Democratic Primary turnout in the Magnolia State was 420,751, the largest in twenty years; in the relatively uncontested GOP primary, the turnout was 143,286. In the 2004 General Election in Mississippi, President Bush beat John Kerry 657,920 (60%) to 435,584 (40%). Barack Obama won the state 61% to 37%, winning 19 delegates to Hillary Clinton’s 14, so she did benefit from spending time in the state. According to exit polls, young people -- under 30 -- accounted for 14% of the turn-out, triple their share in the 2000 General Election. About 80% of the young voters participated in the Democratic Primary, choosing Obama over Clinton by three-to-one. Race more than gender was the key factor in the Mississippi Democratic Primary. According to exit polls, Obama won 92% of black voters and Clinton won 70% of white voters. Republican crossovers accounted for 13% of the Democratic turnout; these voters chose Clinton by three to one. There will have to be some fence-mending among Democrats: 23% will be satisfied only if Clinton wins their party’s nomination; 34% only if Obama wins it. Texas: 22nd District Runoffs Prompts Endorsement Battle Twelve of Texas’s 19 Republican members of the US House endorsed Pete Olson, a former aide to US Sen. John Cornyn (R) and former US Sen. Phil Gramm (R), over Shelley Sekula Gibbs in the April 8 runoff for the GOP nomination in Tom DeLay’s old district. The endorsements are notable in part because Sekula Gibbs is a former House member herself, albeit for only two months at the end of 2006. The 12 members are Mike Conaway, John Culberson, Louie Gohmert, Kay Granger, Jeb Hensarling, Sam Johnson, Ken Marchant, Michael McCaul, Randy Neugebauer, Pete Sessions, Lamar Smith and Mac Thornberry. Sekula Gibbs, who garnered 30% in the first primary to Olson’s 21%, responded by calling Olson an outsider who moved from Washington to Texas to run for the seat and by releasing a list of 30 local Republican officials and officeholders who are supporting her. Florida: Wasserman Schultz and Meek Won’t Help Three Democratic Challengers Democratic loyalists in Florida and in Washington, DC, are not too pleased with recent statements by US Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kendrick Meek, both Democrats, that they will not campaign for their party’s challengers to Florida’s three Cuban-American Republican members of Congress. Wasserman Schultz is a co-chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) “Red to Blue” program designed to gain victories in districts currently held by Republicans. She contends that she has worked too closely with Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Mario Diaz-Balart to be comfortable in helping defeat them. According to press reports, Wasserman Schultz recently lavishly praised Ros-Lehtinin at a Washington meeting of Miami-Dade County Commissioners. The Wasserman Schultz-Meek withdrawals from the fray are a blow to the DCCC’s much-touted efforts to defeat the three Republicans. McCain Leading in Florida, Tennessee Despite growing indications in the South and nation of Democratic gains, recent polls in at Florida and Tennessee suggest that Dixie might hold on to its role as the GOP base. In Florida, McCain led Obama 47% to 37% and led Clinton 49% to 40% in a Mason-Dixon Poll taken February 21-24. The Democrats’ problem in this major state (27 electoral votes) is exacerbated by the controversy over whether to seat the Florida delegates at the Democratic National Convention. According to an InsiderAdvantage Florida survey taken March 10, 31% of registered Democrats would be “less likely” to vote for their party’s presidential nominee in November if their delegates aren’t seated at the Denver convention. And in another Southern state, a Middle Tennessee State University Poll of Volunteer State voters, taken in mid-February, shows McCain leading Obama 50% to 36% and leading Clinton 56% to 36%. Tennessee: Alexander Leads in Poll A new poll conducted for US Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) shows him leading both of the candidates for the Democratic US Senate nomination. The survey, taken March 5-9 by Ayres, McHenry & Associates, showed Alexander leading Mike Padgett, a former clerk of Knox County, by 58% to 31%, and leading Bob Tuke, former state Democratic chairman, by 59% to 28%. Reading the Pollster’s Tea Leaves SPR occasionally gets questions or complaints about the results of polls taken for a particular candidate. Our policy is to publish them as reported, but to make sure that the reader understands who paid for the poll. Without regard to the Alexander survey noted above, we have found over the years that -- not surprisingly -- polls paid for by a candidate are generally more favorable to him or her than polls paid for or conducted by neutral parties. Nevertheless, these polls may reflect trends that our readers should be aware of and so we will continue to publish them, always noting who paid the piper.
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