Three of 10 Florida Democrats may turn on their party in November if delegates aren't seated
By Gary Reese
Florida Insider
March 12, 2008 —
Thirty-one percent of registered Democratic voters in Florida said they would be “less likely” to vote for the party’s presidential nominee in the fall if Florida’s Democratic presidential delegates aren’t seated at the party’s nominating convention this summer. Fifty-seven percent said they would “as likely” to vote for the Democrat in the fall, and 12 percent had no opinion. Also, 52% of Democratic voters disapprove of the party’s disqualification of Florida’s delegates, and 35% approve. Thirteen percent had no opinion. The poll was conducted March 10 by InsiderAdvantage for Florida Insider. The survey was conducted among 416 registered Democratic voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. The data have been weighted for age, race and gender. Will three out of 10 Democratic voters really stay home from the polls in November because of the tiff over Florida’s delegates? Probably not. By this fall, the presidential election may be the most intense media event in the history of America. A perfect storm of passion and politics is slowly brewing: Recession and maybe stagflation; a leftist bi-racial man as perhaps the early favorite to win it all; a “pro-war” Republican candidate who, nevertheless, is despised by much of his own GOP base. The only guarantee in all this is controversy and heated emotions all around. By the time all this comes to a boil this summer, the ill feelings in Florida over the non-seating of the state’s Democratic delegates may long have been shoved into the back of everyone’s minds. And still, it can’t help the Democrats. “For John McCain to win Florida, it would probably take significantly fewer defections from the Democratic ranks than we see in this poll,” said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage. “If as few as 5% of Florida Democrats who normally would vote for their party’s ticket decide to sill out the election or vote for McCain, that could be disastrous for the Democrats.
“The poll also shows that the public is following the situation closely in media, which often is not the case with political issues that concern politicians, but no one else." “The danger to Obama or Clinton in Florida this fall is very real. And the longer the situation festers, the worse it could get,” said Towery. “We polled this same issue some months ago, and the negative reaction was negligible. Now, it’s anything but.”
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