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7/24/2008
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| Why Polling is so Tricky this Year |
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July 23, 2008 |
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McCain holds to small lead in Georgia
By Matt Towery
Southern Political Report
Copyright © 2008 Creators Syndicate
7/4/2008 — An InsiderAdvantage/PollPosition survey conducted with our research partner Majority Opinion Research shows John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a tight race in Georgia, the ninth largest electoral prize in the nation. The poll also indicates that the should Obama choose former Georgia United States Senator Sam Nunn, Obama’s chances of winning Georgia in November improve.
The results:
Poll conducted July2, 2008
Statewide sample; Registered Georgia voters likely to vote in November; 502 sample; Weighted for age, race, gender, political affiliation. Margin of error +/- 4.3%
Q. 1Georgia Presidential ballot:
McCain: 46%
Obama: 44%
Barr: 4%
Undecided: 6%
Q.2 “If Barack Obama selected Georgia’s former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn as his Vice Presidential running mate, would you be more or less likely to vote for Barack Obama?”
More likely: 51%
Less likely: 11%
No difference/Undecided: 38%
Analysis: Georgia, which has one of the highest African-American voting age populations in the nation along with an unusually young voter age population, remains the hidden battleground of the 2008 campaign. The Obama campaign is saturating television in the state, clearly believing that the 15 electoral votes in Georgia are up for grabs. It’s a credit to John McCain’s personal favorable ratings in the state (which are high) that he has continued to cling to this lead despite having little media presence. The deal breaker could be former United States Senator Sam Nunn, who left the Senate in the mid-1990s. Nunn, known as a top expert of foreign policy, has relatively low name identification in his home state after eleven years out of direct political circulation. But should he receive the nomination, Nunn would almost immediately become known in his home state as a former senator and the survey shows that with such knowledge, a majority of Georgians say they are more likely to vote for Obama. However, that does not equate to a vote for Obama. To determine the actual impact on the vote, one would need a direct comparison. Some suggest, with Florida looking more likely to go McCain, a Barack-Obama/Sam Nunn vs. John McCain/Sonny Perdue survey. Perdue had been mentioned as a potential VP nominee earlier in the year. Perhaps Nunn and Perdue are back on the radar screens.
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